PEG= P/E ratio ÷ Annual EPS Growth
PEG(dividend adjusted)= P/E ratio ÷ (Annual EPS Growth + Dividend Yield)
A lower ratio is "better" (cheaper) and a higher ratio is "worse" (expensive).
The P/E ratio used in the calculation may be projected or trailing, and the annual growth rate may be the expected growth rate for the next year or the next five years.
In general, the P/E ratio is higher for a company with a higher growth rate. Thus using just the P/E ratio would make high-growth companies appear overvalued relative to others. It is assumed that by dividing the P/E ratio by the earnings growth rate, the resulting ratio is better for comparing companies with different growth rates.
by Peter Lynch, who wrote in his 1989 book One Up on Wall Street that "The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate", i.e., a fairly valued company will have its PEG equal to 1.
The PEG ratio's validity at extremes in particular (when used, for example, with low-growth companies) is highly questionable. It is generally only applied to so-called growth companies (those growing earnings significantly faster than the market). The PEG ratio is less appropriate for measuring companies without high growth. Large, well-established companies, for instance, may offer dependable dividend income, but little opportunity for growth.
Company growth rates that are much higher than the economy's growth rate are unstable and vulnerable to any problems the company may face that would prevent it from keeping its current rate. Therefore, a higher-PEG stock with a steady, sustainable growth rate (compared to the economy's growth) can often be a more attractive investment than a low-PEG stock that may happen to just be on a short-term growth "streak". A sustained higher-than-economy growth rate over the years usually indicates a highly profitable company, but can also indicate a scam, especially if the growth is a flat percentage no matter how the rest of the economy fluctuates.
One way to make a PEG analysis more effective is to compare the ratio of the stock being analyzed with the average ratio of its industry group.
Along with the PEG, Peter Lynch focused on fundamental variables like the debt/equity ratio, earnings per share growth rate, inventory/sales ratio, and free cash flow. It's important to note that Lynch used different criteria for different categories of stocks, with the three main categories being "fast-growers" (stocks with EPS growth rates of at least 20 percent per year); "stalwarts" (stocks with growth rates between 10 and 20 percent and multi-billion-dollar sales); and "slow-growers" (those with single-digit growth rates and high dividend payouts). He also used special criteria for financial stocks.
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Saturday, December 21, 2013
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