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Showing posts with label Macro economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Macro economy. Show all posts

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Stance on immigration policies

Link
We expect the job market to stay tight with downward bias for resident unemployment rate. As shown in Figure 16, resident unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) has declined to its lowest just right before the global financial crisis struck. Figure 17 suggests the current very tight labour market will persist as demand outstrips supply. All this points to labour costs staying elevated, which bodes ill for labour-intensive sectors such as transportation, manufacturing, construction, hotels and restaurants. Within our coverage universe, the following names are more vulnerable: SMRT and Sheng Siong.
Rising cost pressures to also hurt SMEs

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Indonesian Rupiah continue to weaken

Expect further weakness ahead for Indonesian exposed counters, as the Rupiah slumps to near its five-year low yesterday against the USD of 12,000, pressured by strong corporate dollar demand. Some analysts expects the rupiah to further extend its downtrend, noting that there is not much positive sentiment for the Rupiah for now, with the 12,150 low of Mar?09 and 12,600 low of 2008, seen as the next levels of support. The following counters derive a significant percentage of revenue from Indonesia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (100%), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (94%), Sinarmas Land (90%), Petra Foods (72%), Asia Enterprises (69%), Interra Resources (66%), First REIT (14%), NeraTel (11%). *Note that the list is by no means comprehensive and does not take into account net hedging effects. *The list excludes Indonesian plantation companies, which may be potential beneficiaries of a weaker rupiah, as CPO prices are denominated in USD, while plantation operations incur costs in rupiah.

Monday, December 2, 2013

HDB construction tapering since 2014

National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said the tapering will be done in a "measured" way to allow the housing market to gradually adjust.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Abenomics

Abenomics, a new term for Japanese PM to decide to print money, a gamble to improve economy.

The trend will continue, too many hot money, interest rate is close to zero.

REIT will still be a favorite.

Btw, global economy still in uptrend, but cyclical industry still in downturn, eg. Ship building, due to over supply in 2005~2008. Commodity?