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Saturday, October 1, 2022

Chip industry

Chip industry, the value chain has 2 major parts: Design and Manufacturing. 

Design houses have the top companies, Qualcomm, Apple, Nvidia, etc. 

Manufacturing (foundry): TSMC, Samsung, and Intel maybe. 

The problem of advancement of Chip is the Cost. Only TSMC, Intel and Samsung still pursuing the Moore's Law. And only biggest design houses can bear the cost of most advance node. TSMC has ~53% of foundry market share, and ~half of revenue from advance nodes, currently <=7nm. So still 75% of market at mature nodes. If the design houses that can afford advance nodes become lesser, it will be difficult to share and lower the cost. Another side, more companies stay at mature nodes and will continue to drive down the cost as more foundries fight at same technology. 

So although the whole industry will keep growing, it's difficult to know TSMC will keep growing, especially geopolitical concern. The design houses also hard to predict who will dominate, maybe the better way is to bet few of them as a portfolio, eg. Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD, Intel. 




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